TOWN BOTTOM OF LOCAL AUTHORITY TABLE WITH NOTHING TO REPORT ON INFECTIONS

GOOD NEWS COMES AS SCIENCE EXPERTS SAY 'POSSIBILITY NOT PREDICTION' OF SECOND WAVE WITH 120,000 HOSPITAL DEATHS ALONE IN A 'REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO'

ATHERSTONE is fighting shy of new cases of deadly Covid-19 as wearing a face covering in shops and supermarkets is to be made mandatory in England.

Tuesday's update of the rolling seven-day rate of new infections for every one of 316 local authorities in the country puts North Warwickshire in bottom spot.

It registered no rate of case per 100,000 population up to July 10, falling from a figure of 9.3 per 100,000 the previous week.

While the borough is holding the virus at bay, neighbours Nuneaton and Bedworth are in 24th spot in the table – ahead of all eight local authorities on its borders.

But the figures are not so good from the Covid Symptom Tracker app which predicts active cases on a daily basis.

Atherstone and district is registering 893 contributors with 76.2 active cases per 100,000.

But again neighbouring Nuneaton and Bedworth finds itself in the top tier with 1,194 contributors at an active rate of 184.3 per 100,000.

Leicester, in lockdown and facing the threat of an extension when it is reviewed by Government on Saturday, has 2,215 at active cases of 97.9 per 100,000 population.

And the city of Leicester is currently the worst place in England for the highest infection rate of NEW cases of the infection per 100,000 population.

The latest stats come as scientists advising the Government have warned that a second wave of coronavirus infections this winter could be more serious than the first – with 120,000 hospital deaths in a "reasonable worst-case scenario".

The new-case figures, which are for the seven days to July 10, are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government's testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two).

The rate is expressed as the new number of new cases per 100,000 population.

In Leicester, the rate has fallen slightly from 117.7 in the seven days to July 3 to 114.3 in the seven days to July 10. It was 156.8 in the seven days to June 26.

Second on the list is Pendle, where the rate has gone up from 14.2 to 67.8. This has been caused by a spike in new cases recorded on July 6 and 7.

Herefordshire, in fifth place, has shot up from 1.6 to 36.4 and is due to 63 coronavirus cases being recorded on July 9, linked to an outbreak on a farm near Worcester.

The list is based on latest Public Health England figures updated on July 13 on the Government's coronavirus online dashboard.

Data for the most recent three days (July 11 to 13) has been excluded as it is incomplete and likely to be revised.

Other surrounding authorities' results are below – showing the place in the table, this week's figure showing the rate of new cases in the seven days to July 10, followed by the equivalent figure for the previous seven days to July 3 in brackets.

24TH Bedworth and Nuneaton 15.5 (9.3)

32ND North West Leicestershire 12.7 (4.9)

97TH Hinckley and Bosworth 5.3 (16.9)

101ST Tamworth 5.2 (7.8)

113TH Birmingham 4.8 (6.0)

135TH Solihull 4.2 ((3.7)

138TH Coventry 4.1 2.7)

175TH Lichfield 2.9 (4.8)

216TH North Warwickshire 0.0 (9.3)

The heat map from the Covid Symptom Tracker app reveals where the current outbreaks are and reveals the Midlands remains at the current epicentre of the virus.

Three weeks ago the number of predicted symptomatic cases across the country was 134,260. That figure is now down to just 24,286 – and holding steady for the last week– with daily new cases totally 1,472. The new stats were based on the data from almost three million users and completed between June 21 to July 4. Figures compare with the most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics in which 14,000 people in England were estimated to be infected with Covid-19 during the two week period from June 22-July 5 – with 1,400 daily cases. Although the borough had moved down the table of new incidences of Covid-19 in terms of cases per 100,000 of its population, the under-investigation George Eliot Hospital has recorded 34 deaths in June after a mini spike in cases and in the seven days up to June 29 recorded the second highest number of fatalities – 12 – in an NHS trust in the UK (the highest being East Kent Hospitals Trust with 21). George Eliot Hospital is in the middle of three-way investigation – headed by Public Health England – to establish what is behind an upsurge in cases which Warwickshire public health director Shade Agboola says is now "levelling off". The "significant number" of patients testing positive in the hospital's care in mid June brought the county's top official to make a after seven deaths were announced in a five-day period at the Eliot. All the Eliot would confirm was the "temporary closure and deep cleaning" of 25 beds as upwards of 50 patients are claimed to be being treated after testing positive for the virus. A fortnight ago Public Health England changes in reporting confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Atherstone and district have seen the totals leap by two thirds overnight – going from 217 to 330. Today's figures in 331. Under the new figures Atherstone and district have now reported 331 Covid-19 cases at the second highest rate per 100,000 population of any of its neighbouring Midland authorities including Birmingham and Coventry. Its rate is now 510.4 per 100,000 population (previously 334.6) compared with Nuneaton and Bedworth's 851 cases at 660.2 per 100,000 and North West Leicestershire 318 cases at 311.4 per 100,000 population. Warwickshire's total of confirmed cases now stands at 2,506 (previously 1,592) with a rate of 438.9 per 100,000 (previously 278.8).

UK cases rose by 530 in the last 24 hours to 290,133

Recorded deaths went up by 11 to 44,830. But the real number of fatalities involving the virus in the UK has passed 55,000, according to the latest available data.

On a global note, confirmed cases have passed the 13 million mark with fatalities at 576,485.

Meanwhile, a second wave of coronavirus infections this winter could be more serious than the first, with 120,000 hospital deaths in a "reasonable worst-case scenario", scientists advising the Government believe.

A new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences, commissioned by the Government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, says action must be taken now to mitigate the potential for a second peak of Covid-19.

It argues that hospitals could potentially see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths in between September and next June at the same time as battling a surge in demand due to usual winter pressures, including flu.

The report, from 37 scientists and academics, acknowledges there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the Covid-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but sets out a "reasonable worst-case scenario" that would see the R rate rise to 1.7 from September.

The R refers to the number of people an infected person can be expected to pass the virus on to.

The academic modelling suggests there could be a peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021, similar to or worse than the first wave in spring 2020. It does not include deaths in the community or care homes.

The figures do not take account of Government intervention to reduce the transmission rate, or the use of the drug dexamethasone in intensive care units, which has been shown to cut deaths.

p>Professor Stephen Holgate, a Medical Research Council clinical professor of immunopharmacology who led the study, said: "This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility.

"The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.

"With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us."

Furthermore, in a statement on Tuesday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned anyone failing to comply with the new compulsory order on face masks in shops – which comes into force on July 24 – could face a fine of up to £100.

It brings shops in line with public transport, where face coverings have been compulsory since June 15.

The move follows a weekend of confusion over whether ministers intended to make face coverings compulsory after Boris Johnson said they were looking at "stricter" rules.

The senior Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said on Sunday he did not believe they should be mandatory and that it was better to "trust people's common sense".

However, during a visit to the London Ambulance Service on Monday, the Prime Minister offered the clearest signal he was going down the route of compulsion, saying the Government was looking at the "tools of enforcement".