NHS may be coping at moment but forecasts predict 'most deaths in Europe and worst fatality rate in world' for UK from Covid-19

CONFIRMED CASES OF VIRUS IN MIDLANDS PASS 10,000 MARK AS WARWICKSHIRE TOTAL ON 573

THE UK could end up with the most deaths in Europe from coronavirus with its fatality rate likely to be worst in the world, experts have warned.

Today's toll of 737 new recorded deaths saw Britain past the grim 10,000 milestone – its 84,279 confirmed cases moving us above China's almost-stationary total and the UK's 10,612 lives lost to Covid-19 being three times more than where the outbreak first surfaced on November 17 last year.

As Atherstone comes to terms with the loss of retired 3M worker Roy Allitt, the opening of the NHS Nightingale at the NEC – just a few miles from the town – will ease pressure on hospitals across the Midlands as people testing positive in the region now stands at 10,819 with Birmingham's 1,774 cases topping the upper tier local authority table.

Warwickshire is 30th in that table with 573 confirmed cases, neighbouring Leicestershire has passed 500 – up to at 507 – while Coventry is on 370. Birmingham tops the UK's upper tier local authority table with 1,774 cases.

The overall UK death totals are causing concern. Today may be down on the 980 record on Friday or yesterday's figure of 917 but historically there has been a under reporting of stats over weekend periods.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation may have revised its death toll forecast for the virus in the UK from a 66,000 cumulative figure – but it's still 37,000.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of research-based charity the Wellcome Trust, told the Andrew Marr show on Sunday it was possible the UK could end up with one of the worst coronavirus death rates in Europe, "if not the worst".

He said continuing testing in the community would "buy you time" to deal with the crisis, giving an additional six to eight weeks to ensure health systems were up to capacity.

Sir Jeremy added it was "probably inevitable" that there would be future waves of coronavirus across Britain without a vaccine in place.

"It is my view that treatment and vaccines are our only true exit strategy from this," he said.

"We are determined that we don't go through this ever again and I think the chances of second and third waves of this epidemic are probably inevitable."

A vaccine could be available by this autumn, but it won't be ready to immunise billions of people at that stage, he said.

The case fatality rate for the UK is now 12.59 per cent and is within 0.13 of a decimal point of overtaking Italy whose CFR is falling. They recorded 431 deaths today in 4,092 new cases while our cases were up more than 5,000 in the last 24 hours.

Germany is clearly plateauing in terms of the infection, just 523 new cases and 36 deaths. Its CFR is only 2.3 per cent.

Even the US, with 535,000 cases and 21,400 deaths has a case fatality rate of 3.99 per cent.

Americans – reportedly "howling at the moon" in a new nightly ritual to mourn for loved ones lost to Covid-19 and to reassure our neighbours they are still alive, may be required to wear face masks for more than a year, according to medical experts at Yale University.

The world's case total is now 1.83 million with deaths just passing the 113,000 mark. Recoveries are at 420,000.

Meanwhile, plans are being drawn up to begin easing the lockdown from early June in the UK after a predicted fall in Covid-19 hospital admissions but social distancing rules could be with us 'indefinitely' to stop a second wave of coronavirus, experts have reportedly warned.

Even after the strictest lockdown ends, Britons might need to be asked to avoid large gatherings, work from home and stay 6ft apart for months or even years.

Experts are preparing to lift restrictions "in reverse", possibly re-opening schools first followed by shops and pubs – with the ban on large gatherings last to end.

Good news for Britain came earlier today in the shape of Boris Johnson leaving hospital and going to Chequers to recuperate as persistent coronavirus symptoms left him in intensive care at St Thomas's hospital in central London for four days.

On leaving the hospital, the Prime Minister described the NHS as "unconquerable" after seeing first-hand how it was dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

In a video posted on Twitter, the PM said the "NHS has saved my life, no question".

The Conservative Party leader admitted he had personally seen, during his seven days in hospital, the "pressure the NHS is under".

But he said the NHS had the resolve to get the country through the health emergency.

Mr Johnson said: "We will win because our NHS is the beating heart of this country.

"It is the best of this country. It is unconquerable. It is powered by love."

Some 32 NHS staff have lost their lives to Covid-19 to date.

Tributes have been paid to sister Leilani Dayrit, 47, of St Cross Hospital in Rugby; Hillingdon Hospital nurse Sara Trollope who died at Watford General Hospital after testing positive; Julie Omar, 52, an experienced nurse who had been working at Redditch's Alexandra Hospital; Cardiff and Vale University Health Board nurse Gareth Roberts; and two porters at the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford.

Around half of Royal Gwent Hospital's A&E staff – in one of the worst-affected areas in the UK for coronavirus – have tested positive for the virus, according to a consultant.

Dr Tim Rogerson said 50 per cent of the consultants and nurses at the Royal Gwent Hospital's accident and emergency department have tested positive for Covid-19.

Intensive care consultant Dr Ron Daniels says the rule book for work-life has been torn up and thrown away amid the coronavirus outbreak while praising "porters, cleaners, hotel servicing staff and catering staff and admitting "we couldn't be doing this" without them.

On Easter Sunday, the University Hospitals Birmingham doctor sent out his own message of hope.

He said: "As we approach mid-April, the NHS is coping. The only reason we're coping is because of our public and the way our public is behaving.

"We're all people, we know lockdown is hard. It's difficult and challenging not seeing our friends and family and losing that personal interaction.

"But it is saving lives.

"I think it's unlikely it's going to be changed any time very soon, we just have to learn to embrace this new way of working.

"We've got to hope for the future because we've seen in other countries that this crisis can be brought to an end."

Earlier today, Atherstone vicar, the Rev Michael Brandma, told the town to "give yourselves a clap" as its solidarity of purpose was defying the coronavirus outbreak.