How the future of Atherstone's housing needs may depend on an algorithm

EX-TOWN MP, TORY CRITIC AND PLANNING EXPERTS ON THE METHOD OF DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF NEW HOMES TO BUILD IN THE AREA

'NEW PLANNING LAWS WILL FORCE THE BOROUGH COUNCIL TO DESIGNATE EXTRA LAND TO MEET BORIS HOUSING TARGET'

AN ALGORITHM that will decide how many houses are built for Atherstone and district is targeting a rise of two and half times the current rate, it has emerged

The borough, already bracing itself for more development, is one of four Midland authorities facing a "dramatic increase" – in North Warwickshire's case, up 157 per cent increase in the way new home allocations are calculated.

And former Atherstone MP Mike O'Brien has warned even more land will have to be set aside in North Warwickshire to meet the 'Boris The Builder' target with new planning laws "ending local democracy" on housebuilding as decisions are taken out of the hands of local councils.

Instead, ministers plan to set an annual target – nationally at 337,000 – and then divide that number along local authorities who must find the available land for new properties.

The news comes as the Government's latest reforms on a proposed formula for determining local housing needs are facing criticism from inside, as well as outside, its ranks.

The former Labour Solicitor-General's comments have been supported by Leicestershire Tory MP Neil O'Brien who said he couldn't understand why the Government was opting for a proposal that risked seeing housing requirement for some cities "stagnate" while the volume of new homes suburbs and the shires rose steeply

At the start of this month Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick launched a White Paper, arguing that "once in a generation" reforms would "cut red tape" and "lay the foundations for a brighter future, providing more homes for young people and creating better quality neighbourhoods and homes across the country".

But Harborough, Oadby and Wigston MP Mr O'Brien said: "Lots of our large cities have brownfield land and capacity to take more housing and it seems strange when planning to 'level up' to be levelling down their housing targets to rates even lower than they have been delivering."

And then he sounded a note of caution on algorithms which he said had "been in the news and not for good reasons".

He went on:" One lesson from the A-levels row is that principles which seem reasonable can lead to outcomes you don't expect.

"Another algorithm's coming down the tracks: the new formula for how many houses must be built in different places. There are few with higher stakes."

He said the White Paper proposed changing not just the methodology for assessing housing need, but would make a "standard method" compulsory for the first time.

"In other words, if we don't like the results of the new algorithm, we'll have blocked off the emergency exits," he added.

Mr Mike O'Brien added: "New planning laws will end local democracy on housebuilding.

"Conservative ministers will 'distribute' an annual target among local councils, and authorities like North Warwickshire will be forced to designate extra land to meet the 'Boris Housing Target'."

So, what are the implications of the Government's proposed new method for Atherstone, the borough and the wider West Midlands?

While, the level of increases varies across the region, a majority of authorities would see an increase between 0.1 per cent and 40 per cent, and 80 per cent up to 120 per cent.

Four authorities – North Warwickshire, Stratford-upon-Avon, Wychavon and Malvern Hills – would see a dramatic increase in housing needs , in excess of 120 per cent.

Planning consultancy Lichfields has set out all the new LHN figures for the whole of the region and 90 per cent of authorities will see an increase.

Ironically, while the 'standard method' number comes down for Birmingham by 15 per cent, the rest of the West Midlands climbs by 52 per cent.

For Atherstone and North Warwickshire, the LHN figures will rocket under the proposed new 'standard method'.

The current standard method shows a new homes-per-year rate of 171 while under the proposed new standard that would rise by 157 per cent to 439 extra properties needed annually.

The borough council's Local Plan has a stated figure of 203 new homes a year while the delivery of that target has been a healthy 297 properties on average annually over the last three years.

Even set against the current Local Plan total – it would mean more than a doubling of homes to be built (116 per cent) to 439 a year.

Atherstone town councillor Brian Henney has spoken recently of why thousands more people will have to be housed in Atherstone in the future.

He told North Warwickshire Radio: "Why on earth are we cramming as many houses as possible into smaller hamlets, villages and towns?"

But judging by the Lichfields research, his plea for more houses to be built in an around Stratford-upon-Avon could come true as it is – along with Atherstone and North Warwickshire – one of the four council areas with the highest rise in housing needs.

"They want it in their back yard," argued Councillor Henney.

The algorithm that makes these new home allocations will mean more homes built in the countryside and suburbs, and fewer in town and city centres, according to Lichfields.

Still in the Midlands, its analysis found that in Leicester the number of new homes built would drop by 32 per cent compared with the average over the past three years, while across the rest of Leicestershire it would rise by 39 per cent.

In Nottinghamshire the rate of housebuilding would jump by 73 per cent, while in Nottingham it would fall by 30 per cent.

The South East has been delivering just over 39,000 homes a year, and will be expected to increase that to just over 61,000, a 57 per cent increase. The East of England would see a 43 per cent increase, the East Midlands a 33 per cent increase, the West Midlands a 25 per cent increase and the South West a 24 per cent increase.

The significant rise in LHN figures across the West Midlands region is largely a result of the proposed new methods increased emphasis on affordability.

In fact, the proposed new method removes the affordability 'cap' and applies affordability uplifts based on the change in the ratio over last 10 years, which has led to significantly higher levels of need across the West Midlands due to the worsening affordability.

Lichfields ends its report: "The significant increase in housing needs across the West Midlands will inevitably once again raise legitimate and cogent arguments about the availability of brownfield land and the need for Green Belt release, in order to ensure sufficient land is available to deliver the homes that are needed.

"Consequently, the debate around where such land is to be found, alongside how these needs can be distributed looks set to continue for at least a few more years."